PII Update

Watching PII closely due to its current position and reaction are critical. On the chart below we have two interpretations, as always a bullish and bearish variety. PII has rallied since mid January to new highs corresponding to a test of a rising trendline. Subsequently this trendline is both a neckline for an inverted head & shoulders continuation pattern and the upper channel line for a rising channel. A break to the upside will confirm the H&S with a measures move to roughly $87. Failure to break above this trendline will likely lead to a downside move to the lower channel line. Typically rising channels are bearish in most scenarios, also inverted head and shoulders continuations usually have necklines that are negative in slope. In addition volume has been declining since the earnings release on the 25th. The best position (risk/reward) wise to take here is to short PII, buy puts or sell calls with a stop above yesterdays highs. However I already have significant profits on this trade (contract up 81%) therefore I plan to hold this position for a potential upside breakout, a mental stop is placed slightly below yesterdays low ~68.60.