Big Bounce or False Reversal

Today the S&P had a strong bounce off of the 200 sma as well as closing above the 200 ema. The Markets have been oversold for quite sometime so is a bounce in play for tomorrow or Mondays session? Time will tell my bet is that with a break above today’s high we will see a decent sized rally. As always I could be terribly wrong but believe with the overly bearish sentiment (http://allstarcharts.com/bears-outnumber-bulls-by-biggest-margin-since-august/ ) and an interesting analog to the S&P in august provided by Erik Swartz that a bounce is due. (http://www.marketanthropology.com/p/chart-lab.html)